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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It often serves as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence wins the award. However, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or simply the biggest upset.

Yet the latest competition is distinctly different. The list of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime underperformers improving collectively. During an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a chaotic and fun season, he's up against five other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a normal season, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still